election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 9:10 AM, 52 voters in 14 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 102,386 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 72,949 - 173,261). In addition, 342,044 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and 93,385 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	9:10 AM	1481	c(`2.5%` = 1133)	c(`97.5%` = 2754)
02	9:10 AM	2461	c(`2.5%` = 1868)	c(`97.5%` = 4517)
03	9:10 AM	1367	c(`2.5%` = 979)	c(`97.5%` = 2146)
04	9:10 AM	1342	c(`2.5%` = 919)	c(`97.5%` = 2317)
05	9:10 AM	3285	c(`2.5%` = 2576)	c(`97.5%` = 5935)
06	9:10 AM	921	c(`2.5%` = 617)	c(`97.5%` = 1460)
07	9:10 AM	673	c(`2.5%` = 317)	c(`97.5%` = 3059)
08	9:10 AM	3414	c(`2.5%` = 2568)	c(`97.5%` = 6187)
09	9:10 AM	1819	c(`2.5%` = 1373)	c(`97.5%` = 3537)
10	9:10 AM	2050	c(`2.5%` = 1393)	c(`97.5%` = 3109)
11	9:10 AM	863	c(`2.5%` = 585)	c(`97.5%` = 1573)
12	9:10 AM	1492	c(`2.5%` = 1034)	c(`97.5%` = 2335)
13	9:10 AM	1346	c(`2.5%` = 928)	c(`97.5%` = 2224)
14	9:10 AM	588	c(`2.5%` = 387)	c(`97.5%` = 916)
15	9:10 AM	1803	c(`2.5%` = 1397)	c(`97.5%` = 3357)
16	9:10 AM	700	c(`2.5%` = 463)	c(`97.5%` = 1448)
17	9:10 AM	1667	c(`2.5%` = 1169)	c(`97.5%` = 2660)
18	9:10 AM	1319	c(`2.5%` = 933)	c(`97.5%` = 2095)
19	9:10 AM	578	c(`2.5%` = 335)	c(`97.5%` = 1915)
20	9:10 AM	568	c(`2.5%` = 360)	c(`97.5%` = 1303)
21	9:10 AM	3727	c(`2.5%` = 2587)	c(`97.5%` = 5771)
22	9:10 AM	2335	c(`2.5%` = 1820)	c(`97.5%` = 3920)
23	9:10 AM	1147	c(`2.5%` = 780)	c(`97.5%` = 2179)
24	9:10 AM	945	c(`2.5%` = 627)	c(`97.5%` = 1514)
25	9:10 AM	915	c(`2.5%` = 627)	c(`97.5%` = 1938)
26	9:10 AM	1396	c(`2.5%` = 1010)	c(`97.5%` = 2445)
27	9:10 AM	1381	c(`2.5%` = 800)	c(`97.5%` = 2101)
28	9:10 AM	753	c(`2.5%` = 498)	c(`97.5%` = 1534)
29	9:10 AM	779	c(`2.5%` = 551)	c(`97.5%` = 1249)
30	9:10 AM	1592	c(`2.5%` = 1237)	c(`97.5%` = 2614)
31	9:10 AM	1225	c(`2.5%` = 926)	c(`97.5%` = 2157)
32	9:10 AM	1196	c(`2.5%` = 780)	c(`97.5%` = 2395)
33	9:10 AM	812	c(`2.5%` = 436)	c(`97.5%` = 2884)
34	9:10 AM	2855	c(`2.5%` = 1931)	c(`97.5%` = 4390)
35	9:10 AM	1671	c(`2.5%` = 1110)	c(`97.5%` = 3284)
36	9:10 AM	2215	c(`2.5%` = 1455)	c(`97.5%` = 3413)
37	9:10 AM	769	c(`2.5%` = 498)	c(`97.5%` = 1702)
38	9:10 AM	1416	c(`2.5%` = 979)	c(`97.5%` = 2380)
39	9:10 AM	2860	c(`2.5%` = 2050)	c(`97.5%` = 4620)
40	9:10 AM	2672	c(`2.5%` = 1754)	c(`97.5%` = 4345)
41	9:10 AM	1065	c(`2.5%` = 682)	c(`97.5%` = 2330)
42	9:10 AM	1239	c(`2.5%` = 753)	c(`97.5%` = 2899)
43	9:10 AM	955	c(`2.5%` = 561)	c(`97.5%` = 2738)
44	9:10 AM	900	c(`2.5%` = 617)	c(`97.5%` = 1555)
45	9:10 AM	1185	c(`2.5%` = 822)	c(`97.5%` = 2386)
46	9:10 AM	1848	c(`2.5%` = 1403)	c(`97.5%` = 2979)
47	9:10 AM	501	c(`2.5%` = 326)	c(`97.5%` = 862)
48	9:10 AM	1200	c(`2.5%` = 802)	c(`97.5%` = 1908)
49	9:10 AM	1587	c(`2.5%` = 1064)	c(`97.5%` = 2691)
50	9:10 AM	2522	c(`2.5%` = 1822)	c(`97.5%` = 4440)
51	9:10 AM	1471	c(`2.5%` = 1014)	c(`97.5%` = 2403)
52	9:10 AM	1974	c(`2.5%` = 1401)	c(`97.5%` = 3260)
53	9:10 AM	1172	c(`2.5%` = 796)	c(`97.5%` = 2402)
54	9:10 AM	793	c(`2.5%` = 494)	c(`97.5%` = 2091)
55	9:10 AM	1431	c(`2.5%` = 906)	c(`97.5%` = 3054)
56	9:10 AM	2129	c(`2.5%` = 1445)	c(`97.5%` = 4322)
57	9:10 AM	1792	c(`2.5%` = 1255)	c(`97.5%` = 3437)
58	9:10 AM	2985	c(`2.5%` = 2081)	c(`97.5%` = 5774)
59	9:10 AM	1608	c(`2.5%` = 1102)	c(`97.5%` = 2432)
60	9:10 AM	1295	c(`2.5%` = 913)	c(`97.5%` = 1979)
61	9:10 AM	1781	c(`2.5%` = 1147)	c(`97.5%` = 2925)
62	9:10 AM	1239	c(`2.5%` = 807)	c(`97.5%` = 2949)
63	9:10 AM	1827	c(`2.5%` = 1295)	c(`97.5%` = 3617)
64	9:10 AM	991	c(`2.5%` = 669)	c(`97.5%` = 1923)
65	9:10 AM	1467	c(`2.5%` = 1022)	c(`97.5%` = 2931)
66	9:10 AM	3027	c(`2.5%` = 2155)	c(`97.5%` = 5587)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker